【美联储】(重新)连接通货膨胀和劳动力市场-两条曲线的故事(英)

美联储近日发布了一份名为《(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves》的研究报告。该报告由Hie Joo Ahn和Jeremy B. Rudd撰写，旨在探讨通货膨胀与劳动力市场之间的联系，尤其是分析了劳动力市场动态和通货膨胀之间的联合动态。报告提出了一个实证框架，通过这个框架，研究者可以分析劳动力配置冲击、总体经济活动和劳动力供应等因素如何共同影响劳动市场结果和通货膨胀。此外，报告还扩展了Bayesian sign-restricted VAR的估计程序，允许研究者直接在VAR的冲击矩阵上施加先验限制。研究发现，不同类型的劳动力配置冲击对通货膨胀有不同的影响，这为理解当前经济周期中的结构性冲击提供了新的视角，并为政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。报告中深入的分析和独到的见解，对于理解后疫情时代的经济复苏和潜在的“软着陆”提供了重要的理论和实证支持。

(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves

The labor market and inflation are two critical aspects of any economy, and understanding how they interact is key to formulating effective economic policies. A recent study by Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy B. Rudd from the Federal Reserve Board takes a deep dive into this relationship, focusing on the dynamics of the Beveridge curve and the Phillips curve.

The Beveridge curve, which plots the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies, has often been overshadowed by the Phillips curve, which traditionally links inflation with unemployment. However, the study argues that the Beveridge curve holds more conceptual significance and contains vital information about labor market functioning and the shocks that affect it.

Ahn and Rudd propose an empirical framework that accounts for shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply. They extend the Bayesian sign-restricted VAR methodology to directly impose priors on the VAR’s impact matrix, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of the labor market’s joint dynamics with inflation.

One of the study’s key findings is that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have varying effects on inflation. The authors distinguish between reallocation shocks resulting from quits and those from job loss, finding that the former can increase wage growth while the latter can decrease it. This distinction is crucial for understanding the different implications these shocks have for wage and price inflation.

The study also explores the pandemic’s impact on the labor market, noting an unprecedented combination of structural shocks that affected both the unemployment rate and labor force participation. Job-loss reallocation shocks were particularly significant, driving both the rapid outward shift of the Beveridge curve during the pandemic recession and the subsequent inward shift during recovery.

Ahn and Rudd’s analysis provides valuable insights into the debate over the risk of a hard landing, siding with the argument that a soft landing is more likely due to the quantitative importance of job-loss reallocation shocks. They demonstrate that a careful identification of the underlying shocks driving labor market dynamics is essential for a full understanding of the period.

The research also offers a way to empirically link the Beveridge curve with the Phillips curve, showing that noncyclical shocks can influence wage and price inflation. This finding implies that the observed slope of a reduced-form Phillips curve will depend on the incidence and magnitude of labor market shocks.

In conclusion, the study by Ahn and Rudd sheds new light on the complex relationship between inflation and the labor market. It challenges traditional views, offering a more nuanced perspective that considers the multifaceted nature of labor market shocks and their impact on inflation dynamics.

For those interested in delving deeper into these topics, there are several other valuable reports available, all compiled in the同名星球. These reports provide a broader perspective on the intricate dance between labor market conditions and inflation, offering insights that can inform policy decisions and economic forecasting.

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